[Our advice on Week 4 NFL survivor pool picks is up]
The number of eliminations from NFL Survivor pools after Week 1 is staggering. We mentioned last week that it could be a crazy Week 1 with so many favored teams on the road and that proved to be the case. On RunYourPool.com, more than 60 percent of survivor contestants were eliminated. Let’s help you not get eliminated this week, take a look at the most popular survivor pool picks for NFL Week 2 and make some picks.
#CircaSurvivor 2022 started with 6,133 entries. Five days ago.
2,685 entries remain. Unreal. $6.1 million. pic.twitter.com/Ohe4fSyi2v
— Circa Sports (@CircaSports) September 13, 2022
It’s worth monitoring next year if teams that play starters in the preseason perform better in Week 1 than teams that are now choosing to rest their starters for all of preseason and ease into the regular season.
If you advanced, then congrats. You’ve got a really good shot at winning this now with more than half of the field likely eliminated from your pool. Now it’s time to recalibrate what we think we know about each team moving forward. And when you take a look across the NFL landscape from this weekend, there was a grand total of one team who didn’t find the endzone in Week 1… and that team just lost their starting quarterback for the next 6-8 weeks.
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The Dallas Cowboys.
Yup, America’s Team looked completely overmatched against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football with Dak Prescott under center. When you combine the lack of pass-catching threats outside of CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz with a banged-up offensive line, it’s likely going to be a struggle for the Cowboys offensively over the next month while they rely on Cooper Rush to take the reins at quarterback.
Over the next 6 weeks, the Cowboys’ schedule looks like this…
Week 2: vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Week 3: at New York Giants
Week 4: vs. Washington Commanders
Week 5: at Los Angeles Rams
Week 6: at Philadelphia Eagles
Week 7: vs. Detroit Lions
Of those six contests, I’d confidently deploy four of these teams (Bengals, Rams, Eagles and Lions) while avoiding the Giants and Commanders against a division rival.
Week 2 pick percentages
| Team | Opponent | Public Pick |
|---|---|---|
Rams | vs. Falcons | 26.4% |
Broncos | vs. Texans | 15.5% |
Browns | vs. Jets | 9.5% |
Bengals | at Cowboys | 8.8% |
Packers | vs. Bears | 8.1% |
It’s interesting not to see the Bills in this group. They’re 10-point favorites on Monday Night Football at home to Tennessee. I guess the game theory here is that people want to save the Bills as long as possible. In all, there are five teams that are favored by 10 points or more this week.
Week 2 Chalk Picks
Unfortunately, like most survivor entries, I went 0-2 in this section. Hopefully, that turns around this week.
Bengals at Cowboys
Speaking of the Dallas Cowboys, they have the unfortunate task of squaring off against the defending AFC champs, who are fresh off of a frustrating overtime loss at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers. The revamped offensive line around Joe Burrow underwhelmed and will be challenged again this week when facing off against Micah Parsons, who is fresh from a two-sack performance against the Bucs. And while Parsons might speed up the former Heisman trophy winner’s shot clock on a couple of occasions in this one, I don’t believe they’ll be able to hold Ja’Marr Chase & Company in check for too long. After all, the Bengals did generate 432 total yards against a stingy Steelers defense on Sunday. Then take into consideration that the Bengals turned the ball over five times and saw Chase nearly find the endzone on four different occasions before finally punching one in and this Bengals offense feels likely to clean it up after a disappointing performance.
Ja’Marr Chase SO CLOSE
pic.twitter.com/QAstUG12Pb— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) September 11, 2022
On the flip side, the Cowboys’ offense generated a league-low 12 first downs in Week 1. Expect the combination of Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard to fully exploit the work-in-progress Cowboys offensive line unit, who surrendered four sacks against the Bucs on Sunday. It took a blocked extra point, a missed 29-yard field goal and a career-high 4 interception day from Joe Burrow for the Bengals to lose in overtime.
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Looking ahead, this is one of the best spots to use the Bengals until a tough Week 7 slate. The Bengals host Atlanta that week and might be the best play of that week.
Pick: Bengals
Texans at Broncos
Perhaps there was no bigger Survivor pool disappointment in Week 1 of NFL action than Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos coming up short against the Seattle Seahawks. It’s entirely possible that many Survivor pool enthusiasts simply overlooked just how disruptive and chaotic of an environment the 12th Man creates at Lumen Field. However, when you realize that the Broncos lost a pair of fumbles on the 1-yard line, outproduced the Seahawks offense by 180 total yards and settled for a 64-yard field goal attempt instead of trusting Russ on 4th & 5 and still lost by a single point… you quickly come to the realization that the Broncos gave this one away. As previously mentioned, Lumen Field is a tough place to play. Well, so is Mile High Stadium. The Broncos are still loaded with offensive talent across the board and will face off against a Texans defensive unit who gave up 517 total yards and squandered a 17-point fourth-quarter lead at home against a division rival. Expect the Broncos to handle their business against the Texans to ensure that they don’t lose too much ground early in the season in a loaded AFC West.
The next best spot to use the Broncos is in Week 7 when they host the Jets. It’s hard to find spots to use the Broncos since they face the tough AFC West teams six times in 17 weeks.
Pick: Broncos
Week 2 Contrarian Picks
While I struggled in the chalk picks, my contrarian picks went 2-0, and you’re looking good for the rest of survivor if you used those teams.
Patriots at Steelers
The New England Patriots’ offensive play-calling experiment got off to an underwhelming start. The offensive unit produced 7 points (0 in the first half), three turnovers and lacked a significant amount of play action or route concept spacing. Sure, some of it can be attributed to a tough road game assignment against a quality Dolphins defensive unit, but it doesn’t change the fact that the offense appeared to struggle throughout most of this contest. Well, the task doesn’t get much easier this week for Mac Jones, considering they have to travel to the Steel City to face off against Pittsburgh Steelers defensive unit that generated five turnovers and a defensive TD against a far more talented Cincinnati Bengals offensive attack. As of this moment, the status of Steelers running back Najee Harris is uncertain for Sunday, but the Steelers can turn to Jaylen Warren and a talented group of pass catchers in order to generate enough offense to lean on a stingy defense that could make life difficult for a struggling Patriots offense for a second consecutive week.
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Pick: Steelers
Panthers at Giants
Boy, did the Brian Daboll era in the Big Apple start off with a bang or what? The New York Giants knocked out a considerable amount of Survivor pool contestants when they upset the Tennessee Titans on the road to start the season. If you like to live life dangerously and want to save some of the better teams for later in the season, then you should consider rolling out the G-Men for this showdown against the Panthers. One reason you should even consider the Giants is because of the healthy return of running back Saquon Barkley. The burst, speed and power that made him a can’t-miss prospect were all on display against the Titans. He generated 194 yards on 24 touches with a rushing TD and the game-winning two-point conversion. The New York offensive line held their own against one the better front sevens in the league and will face a Panthers defensive unit this Sunday that allowed 217 rushing yards against the Cleveland Browns. In opposition to the encouraging usage of Saquon in Week 1, Carolina felt like they barely used Christian McCaffrey on Sunday, touching the ball only 14 times for 57 total yards. Matt Rhule instead decided to lean on Baker Mayfield, who fumbled four times, threw one interception and took four sacks against his former team in a losing effort. I am a fan of fading struggling quarterbacks on the road. Baker felt like he was pressing a bit in Week 1, and could compound matters if he tries to do too much early in this one. On the flip side, if Daniel Jones can lean on Saquon against a defensive unit that was gouged early and often by the Browns’ rushing attack, this could spell for the Giants’ first 2-0 start since 2016.
Pick: Giants
Please let me know who your favorite survivor pool plays are this week in the comments.
(Photo of Joe Burrow: Katie Stratman / USA Today)
Derek Tate is a contributor for The Athletic covering the NFL. Before working with The Athletic, he worked as a Sports Anchor, NFL Analyst and Play-by-Play Announcer for the television network called NewsNet. He is a graduate of the University of South Florida. Follow Derek on Twitter @DTater4
