numberFire: Best Week 2 Eliminator picks (2024)

Nik Bonaddio and Keith Goldner

Sep 9, 2014, 01:00 PM ET

Week 2 ATS picks | Eliminator picks | Underdog value | NFL PickCenter

Week 1 is in the books, and more than 25 percent of entries in ESPN Eliminator pools have been knocked out. If you listened to us, though, you're still alive, as all three of our recommendations came out on top (Denver, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh).

The San Francisco 49ers, another popular pick, easily dispatched the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday afternoon, keeping pace with division rival Seattle. What was most impressive, though, was the efficiency with which the Niners played. Colin Kaepernick dropped back to pass just 24 times, but added almost 13 points above expectation. Sixteen of his 24 pass plays were successful -- performing above league average -- for a 66.7 percent pass success rate. This was far and away the best success rate among quarterbacks in Week 1 (Jay Cutler was No. 2 at 58.8 percent). For reference, rookie Derek Carr was successful on only 32.4 percent of his pass plays.

Despite the passing success, San Francisco is still a run-first team (only Buffalo, Houston and Seattle ran it more frequently this past week, and San Francisco led the league with the lowest pass-to-rush ratio last season). The 49ers play the Chicago Bears in Week 2; Chicago was gashed by the Buffalo Bills on the ground, giving up over five points that a league-average team would have prevented. Kaepernick, Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde should provide ample trouble for the Bears' front seven. San Francisco is much more efficient throwing the ball, where the 49ers added 65 points above expectation last season versus zero points running the ball after adjusting for strength of schedule.

Each week, we at numberFire.com will be here with our projective modeling to help you survive and advance in your Eliminator pool. Our job is to provide the best information possible to empower smarter decision-making.

Survival Guide

Need help making your Eliminator selections? Check out Insider's latest tool right here.

Sign up for ESPN's Eliminator Challenge.

First, we will provide the win-maximizing pick of the week. This is based on the probability of a team winning combined with the percentage of the ESPN.com Eliminator Challenge population selecting each game. To do this, we generate every possible combination of outcomes each week (65,000-plus) so you can maximize your potential gains. In addition, we will look forward to future matchups to let you know which teams to keep in reserve and highlight the team most likely to win by our projections.

Keep in mind that we are dealing in probability and that upsets will happen.

To help you visualize, below is our Eliminator Pool threat matrix, which shows you how all 32 teams project each week based on our model. It will be updated for this column each Tuesday as results come in over the course of the season.

Here's a helpful guide to navigate the information:

Green: Our equity-maximizing pick of the week

Red: Popular pick: This is the consensus pick by you, the player

Beat the public

In Week 2, the three most-picked teams in the ESPN.com Eliminator Challenge are the New Orleans Saints (30.9 percent), Green Bay Packers (26.0 percent), and Washington Redskins (8.4 percent). Using this information combined with our win probability estimates, here are the equity-maximizing picks of the week (Vegas win probabilities according to Westgate Las Vegas Superbook):

1. Denver Broncos over Kansas City Chiefs (80.3 percent numberFire win probability, 90.9 percent Vegas win probability)

Population-adjusted win probability*: 78.0

We had the Broncos as our top pick last week and mentioned that they would likely be at the top all season. Well, here they are again. Denver dominated the Indianapolis Colts on offense, and despite Indy's furious comeback attempt, the Broncos were comfortably in control. Peyton Manning's offense added 16 points above expectation, the No. 2 total in the AFC behind only the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Chiefs have suffered a slew of injuries, and Andy Reid barely let Jamaal Charles touch the ball in Week 1. Kansas City currently ranks No. 29 in offensive efficiency, close to 10 points below expectation.

2. San Francisco 49ers over Chicago Bears (77.5 percent nF, 75.6 percent Vegas)

Population-adjusted win probability: 76.6 percent

Kaepernick led an aerial assault over the depleted Cowboys secondary on Sunday, adding over a point to his team's offense for every two passes, which was No. 2 in the league on a per-play basis. The Bears will have their hands full, looking to rebound after a heartbreaking overtime loss to Buffalo.

3. Washington Redskins over Jacksonville Jaguars (70.6 percent nF, 72.6 percent Vegas)

Population-adjusted win probability: 66.5 percent

While the Jaguars gave everyone a scare, jumping out to a 17-0 lead over the Philadelphia Eagles, they fell back to Earth. The standard pick-against-the-Jaguars strategy still holds, and Robert Griffin III will look to bounce back from the least efficient quarterback performance of Week 1. Griffin cost Washington over 13 points that a league-average team would have scored.

*numberFire projected win probability adjusted for the percentage of people selecting this team in ESPN Eliminator Pools.

Probable picks

Don't want to maximize your winnings? Here are the teams most likely to win in Week 2:

1. Denver Broncos over Kansas City Chiefs (80.3 percent numberFire win probability, 90.9 percent Vegas win probability)

2. San Francisco 49ers over Chicago Bears (77.5 percent nF, 75.6 percent Vegas)

3. Washington Redskins over Jacksonville Jaguars (70.6 percent nF, 72.6 percent Vegas)

Max method

Winning this week is your primary goal, but it is also valuable to look into the future, as you can only pick each team once. The Saints are the most popular pick, but they have a better matchup -- at home versus Tampa Bay -- in Week 5. San Francisco, Washington and Green Bay are all viable options, as this week provides their highest win probability projections.