Keith Goldner and Nik Bonaddio
Sep 16, 2015, 11:26 AM ET
If you stuck with us last week, you were certainly on the edge of your seat Sunday Night. But have faith! Tony Romo led a last-second comeback against the Giants, and that means you're still alive!
This week is a little nicer than last week, with several favorable matchups -- the best of which is the Saints hosting the Buccaneers, who were dismantled by rookie Marcus Mariota in Week 1. Vegas favors the Saints by double digits, and we have them winning just under 80 percent of the time.
In 2014, the Saints owned the No. 3 offense in the NFC, scoring 10 points per game above expectation after adjusting for strength of opponents. But offense has never been Sean Payton's problem with Drew Brees at the helm. The Saints were the worst team in the NFL defensively last season, and they started out Week 1 on the same note, allowing 20 points against the Arizona Cardinals that a league-average defense would have prevented in similar situations.
Each week, we at numberFire.com will be here with our projective modeling to help you survive and advance in your ESPN.com Eliminator Challenge. Our job is to provide you with the best information possible to empower smarter decision-making.
Keep in mind: We are dealing in probability. The NFL is extremely volatile, oozing with random variation -- "Any Given Sunday" certainly holds true. Upsets will happen. We will be the first to tell you, we can't be right all the time. But we are here to help you try to navigate the madness.
To help you visualize, here's our Eliminator Pool threat matrix that shows you how each team projects each week based on our model. It will be updated each week as results come in over the course of the season.
Green -- Our equity-maximizing pick of the week.
Red -- Popular pick: This is the consensus pick by you, the player.
Brown -- Max method: This finds the best matchup of the year and works backward to maximize total win percentage throughout the season.
Beat The Public
In Week 2, the three most picked teams are the New Orleans Saints (25.3 percent), Indianapolis Colts (16.1 percent) and Miami Dolphins (15.2 percent). Using this information combined with our win probability estimates, here are the equity-maximizing picks of the week (Vegas win probabilities according to LVH):
1. New Orleans Saints over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (79.9 percent numberFire win probability, 82.3 percent Vegas win probability)
This is one of the few weeks where you will see us pick the most-picked team as our equity-maximizing pick. The truth is, not nearly enough people are picking the Saints yet in ESPN pools -- though this may change over the coming days. Despite the Saints' aforementioned defensive woes, they are going up against a brutal offense led by rookie Jameis Winston. It should be all Saints day on Sunday.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers over San Francisco 49ers (72.5 percent nF, 71.0 percent Vegas)
Population-adjusted win probability: 69.9 percent
Even though the Steelers lost to the Patriots on opening night, they posted the No. 5 most efficient offense in Week 1, adding almost 17 points over a league-average team. The 49ers performed comparably offensively, thanks to a dominant showing from Carlos Hyde -- who now leads the league in rushing efficiency. That being said, the Steelers defensive woes lie mostly in the secondary, where Colin Kaepernick will have to prevail for the Niners to upset the 5.5-point favorites.
3. Green Bay Packers over Seattle Seahawks (70.0 percent nF, 65.5 percent Vegas)
Population-adjusted win probability: 69.9 percent
Pick against the Seahawks? We must be crazy. The Packers take on Seattle -- coming off its recent overtime loss to St. Louis -- at Lambeau, where the Packers are 3.5-point favorites. The reason this is a viable pick is because so few people are picking them compared to other similar favorites. Only 0.2 percent of all ESPN players are picking Green Bay. In the 20-30 percent chance where one of the huge favorites loses, a Packers pick could net huge equity in a survivor pool that is halved.
Other picks to consider: Baltimore (66.7 percent population-adjusted win probability), Cincinnati (64.7 percent), Indianapolis (62.6 percent)
Probable Picks
Don't want to maximize your winnings? Here are the teams most likely to win in Week 2:
1. New Orleans Saints over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (79.9 percent numberFire win probability, 82.3 percent Vegas win probability)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers over San Francisco 49ers (72.5 percent nF, 71.0 percent Vegas)
3. Baltimore Ravens over Oakland Raiders (72.1 percent nF, 73.7 percent Vegas)
The Ravens lost a tough one against the Broncos, but this pick is not so much about the Ravens as it is the Raiders. Oakland is the No. 31 team in the NFL after Week 1, expected to lose a game to a league-average team by more than eight points. Add an injured starting quarterback on top of that, and we have a recipe for disaster. Joe Flacco and company should dominate in Oakland.
Max method
Winning this week is your primary goal, but it is also valuable to look into the future, as you can only pick each team once. Many are tempted to pick the Indianapolis Colts at home against the New York Jets in Week 2, but they have an even more favorable matchup against the Jaguars in Indy in Week 4. If you can hold off a few weeks, the Colts will have over a 70 percent chance to win that contest.
*numberFire projected win probability adjusted for the percentage of people selecting this team in ESPN Eliminator Pools
